Emergency management logo
Emergency Management Portal
emergency management news, information and guidance
Emergency management logo
05 February 2012 ..:: e-bulletin » weather-forecasting ::..   Login
February / March 2010

WINTER WEATHER FORECASTING

There have been some criticisms of the weather forecasts during the recent bad weather in the UK. We would like to hear your experiences of weather forecasting , and its effect on emergency planning. How accurate or otherwise were the forecasts? How were you affected if the forecasts were not accurate, or not accurate enough? We intend to publish the results, but will not publish your name or contact details unless you specifically wish us to.

We are interested in your comments wherever in the world you are based.

Please fill in the form below and press 'send'

Thank you.
Main Menu

From: Andy Foreman
Organisation: Wycombe District Council
Country: UK
Forecasts were: accurate enough
How was planning affected?: I felt that the forecasts, in particular the additional information from the PWS advisors, were mostly reliable for our area and aided our planning. They did often show a worst case scenario, but by and large we did get what was predicted.
Any other comments: As mentioned in one of the other posts, I feel that a percentage forecasting system would be very beneficial for future events.
From: Ian Cheshire
Organisation: Greenwich Council
Country: UK
Forecasts were: a little inaccurate
How was planning affected?: Particular problem on 21 December when sudden snow fall took all by surprise - forecast had been for later in the day allowing gritting operations beforehand - but this became impossible leading to severe traffic problems. Forecasting in January allowed risk assessments and BCM arrangements to be put in place before events, e.g. meals on wheels deleiveries, special school entrance roads, etc.
Any other comments: Update information from the Public Weather Service Advisor was invaluable giving localised detail to the sometimes vague weather warnings. Use of the "rainfall" radar charts from the Met Office website was also effective, and the use of Hazard Manager will further enhance this provision.
From: Steve Grundell
Organisation: Norfolk County Council - Children's Services
Country: UK
Forecasts were: a little inaccurate
How was planning affected?: It's actually quite difficult to plan because people who you have to convince that something is coming remember all the inaccurate forecasts and forget the accurate ones. This tends to breed a culture of - let's just wait and see how things develop.
Any other comments: The Met Office doesn't help itself by being vague. The phrases "wintry showers" and "rain, sleet or snow in places" aren't useful. It's understandable that the Met Office wants to hedge its bets but the sooner it moves over to percentage forecasting - "there is a 60% chance of heavy rain on Tuesday" the better.
I've also noticed that the Met Office online 5 day forecast tends to predict the worst case for days 4 and 5 and then reduces the severity if necessary.
However the output of the public weather service advisors is very good - appears to be accurate - and also doesn't seem to worry about corporate embarrassment should the prediction be wrong. If the advisors tell us something then it is likely to be correct.
We know that the prediction of the weather is difficult, but maybe the public wonder how when the Met Office spend so much on I.T. the return on investment appears a little low.
And a personal comment - why is the UK the colour of baked clay on the BBC national weather map? It looks like a desert when it clearly isn't.
As ever I hope these comments are useful.

From: William Read
Organisation: Emergency Planning Society - West Midlands Branch
Country: United Kingdom
Forecasts were: a little inaccurate
How was planning affected?: It was difficult to respond to unexpected severe weather, and grit/salt stocks ran low in many areas.
Any other comments:
The UK Met Office has come in for criticism this winter for the accuracy, or otherwise, of its forecasts. But are the national met offices of other countries any more successful?  One way to assess this on an anecdotal basis, would be to seek the views of UK expats resident in such countries as the USA, Canada, France, Italy, Germany and Spain. Having lived abroad for a number of years, how have these foreign residents found the accuracy of the local weather forecasts, compared to the UK Met Office? For example, did local forecasters in these countries forecast for their own countries the severity, or otherwise, of this winter? We are still enduring a  "more severe than average" winter..... whilst a mild winter was forecast by the Met Office.
From: Tony Ferrari
Organisation: NHS Hertfordshire
Country: UK
Forecasts were: a little inaccurate
How was planning affected?: Timing of severe weather took us by surprise a few times but of more problem was when we were forcasted rain but got snow or vice versa
Any other comments: emails from the regional public weather service advisors were very useful. Helped to explain the general alerts more fully and gave much more localised predictions, that seemed much more accurate.
Email:

First name:
Last name:
CC Myself:
What country are you in?: *
Were forecasts:: *
How was planning affected?: *
Any other comments:
Your organisation:
Can we publish your name/org name?:
(*) Required Field.
Send
© 2006 P&I Services   Terms Of Use  Privacy Statement